Fitch Ratings said on Friday, Oct. 31, 2026 in Paris that it has moved France’s long‑term issuer default rating outlook to negative from stable while keeping the A+ rating level.
Reasons for the shift
Fitch points to weaker economic growth, higher borrowing costs and a widening budget deficit. France’s economy remains large and diversified, and its institutions and participation in the euro area still back the rating, but the outlook change signals growing concerns.
New growth and debt forecasts
Fitch cut its GDP growth forecast to 0.5% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027, down from 0.8% and 1.1% previously. The first half of 2026 showed weaker data, and France’s GDP contracted 0.1% in the third quarter. The agency now expects the public debt‑to‑GDP ratio to rise to around 124% by 2028, up from a prior forecast of 122.7%.
That higher debt level comes from a projected budget deficit of 6.4% of GDP in 2027, versus 5.9% earlier, and a draft 2027 budget that still targets a 5.0% deficit despite politically tough measures. Persistent political fragmentation and social challenges make it hard for France to achieve sustained fiscal consolidation, and many public spending items are politically difficult to cut. The high tax burden limits revenue‑growth options.
Fitch still notes that France’s large, wealthy, diversified economy, strong institutions, euro‑zone membership and resilient banking sector keep the A+ rating intact. The negative outlook signals caution for investors and highlights the risk of France’s debt dynamics worsening.