In brief
With a deadline looming, India and the US face tough negotiations over a potential trade agreement, highlighting contentious points such as agricultural access and tariff regulations.
Is the “big, beautiful” trade deal between India and the US running into trouble? Just days away from a key deadline set by President Trump, talks are becoming increasingly complicated. Despite optimism from both sides, including comments from White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, core issues remain unresolved.Negotiators are stuck on crucial topics, primarily concerning agricultural access, auto parts, and tariffs on steel exports. Indian officials have remained in Washington for further discussions as Delhi insists on protecting its crucial agricultural sector, while the US is pushing for broader market access.Experts suggest the upcoming week will be crucial in determining whether the countries will manage to agree on a limited "mini-deal" or abandon the talks altogether. Agricultural market access is a key sticking point; India fears that opening its market could endanger food security and millions of farmers' livelihoods.Moreover, the US is concerned about India's increasing import-quality regulations that complicate market entry. While India’s farm trade is modest, there are hopes for a shift towards more significant agricultural imports from the US, which could potentially widen the trade gap.Fears abound over whether tariff concessions might undermine India’s crucial minimum support prices for farmers. Recent suggestions from India's Niti Aayog for tariff reductions on US farm goods have also raised questions about the government's official stance.Should the deal become reality, it could resemble the recent UK mini trade pact, focusing on tariff cuts for industrial goods and limited agricultural access. The future of broader agreements on services, intellectual property rights, and digital regulations remains uncertain as negotiations unfold.If negotiations falter, experts doubt that Trump would reinstate tariffs on India, given the political implications of such a move. However, unpredictability remains a hallmark of Trump’s trade policy, keeping all scenarios on the table.
