Who's on Charge in Iran?

Sat Apr 25 2026 14:17:10 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)

With the recent leadership change following the war, questions arise about who is truly in control in Iran amidst chaos and uncertainty.

Since the outbreak of war, the leadership dynamics in Iran have shifted dramatically. Mojtaba Khamenei, the new supreme leader, has not made public appearances, raising doubts about his authority and control. Meanwhile, existing political structures appear fragmented, as various figures including Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf have stepped into the spotlight to negotiate and discuss strategy, creating a complex power dynamic. The military seems to be taking a more prominent role, leaving the decision-making process less centralized than before. In this climate of uncertainty, the Islamic Republic remains intact, yet struggles to convey a clear strategy.

The question hanging over Tehran since the opening strikes of Iran's current war with the US and Israel is simple: Who is in charge?

Formally, the answer is clear. Mojtaba Khamenei has assumed the role of supreme leader following the killing of his father, Ali Khamenei, on the first day of the war on 28 February. In the Islamic Republic's system, that position is meant to be decisive. The leader has the final word on almost anything important: war, peace, and the state's strategic direction.

But in practice, the picture is far murkier.

Donald Trump has described Iran's leadership as fractured and suggested the US is waiting for Tehran to produce a unified proposal. Unity was certainly on the minds of Iran's leaders when they distributed a message to Iranians on their mobile phones on Thursday night saying there was no such thing as a hardliner or moderate in Iran - there was just one nation, one course.

Invisible Leader

Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public since taking power. Beyond a handful of written statements, including one insisting the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, there is little direct evidence of his day-to-day control.

Iranian officials have acknowledged that he was injured in the initial strikes but have offered few details. The New York Times, citing Iranian sources, reported this week that he may have suffered several injuries, including to his face that have made it difficult for him to speak.

That absence matters. In Iran's political system, authority is not just institutional - it is also performative. Khamenei's late father signalled intent through speeches, calibrated appearances, and visible arbitration between factions. That signalling function is now largely missing.

The result is a vacuum of interpretation. Some argue that Mojtaba Khamenei's wartime elevation has simply not allowed him to establish authority on his own terms. Others point to reports about his injuries and question whether he is able to actively manage the system at all. Either way, decision-making appears less centralised than before the war.

Diplomatic Channels Open But Only Just

On paper, diplomacy sits with the government. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi continues to represent Tehran in talks with the US, under Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. But neither appears to be setting strategy and their authority is further put into question by the fact that Iran's delegation is headed by Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf.

Ghalibaf's position is therefore precarious - active but not clearly authorised. He insists his actions align with Mojtaba Khamenei's wishes, yet there is little visible evidence of direct co-ordination. In a system that depends on signals from the top, that ambiguity is telling.

In practice, it is the IRGC's actions, whether in enforcing the closure of Hormuz or in striking targets across the Gulf, that appear to be setting the pace of the crisis. Political and diplomatic responses often follow rather than lead.

Overall, while the Islamic Republic remains intact, it struggles to convert its leverage into a cohesive strategy. As pressure mounts, uncertainty around who holds authority is increasingly evident.