In brief
In 2026, Russia captured barely over 117 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory, a stark decline from earlier gains. Ukrainian assaults on Russian oil refineries disabled a U.S. deal to export 1.8 million tonnes of diesel, straining Russia’s fuel supply and battlefield logistics.
In a sharp downturn for Moscow, Russian forces have taken only about 117.38 sq km of Ukrainian land this year, according to independent observers, marking a severe decline from earlier territorial gains.
At the same time, Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have halted a United States‑led shipment of 1.8 million tonnes of diesel. The unsold diesel is a direct blow to Russia’s oil‑based supply chain strategy, which the U.S. had agreed to support under a Trump‑era deal.
Russian troops have also suffered mounting battlefield losses, further eroding their ability to secure new territory. The failed diesel exports underline vulnerabilities in Russia’s logistics and supply lines, as the nation relies heavily on imported fuel for its operations.
