In brief
After months of missile strikes and new sanctions, the US‑Iran conflict seems stuck. Scholars pointing out that the US may need to re‑enter the 2026 ceasefire deal. Iran, meanwhile, plans to wait for concessions rather than capitulate. All sides need a new strategy that balances power and diplomacy.
The US‑Iran war has hit the seventh month of fighting, with the US launching fresh economic sanctions while Iran continues missile attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane. The original ceasefire draft signed in June—known as the Memorandum of Understanding—has now expired, leaving a hot‑spot of conflict and no clear win for either side.
Jason Campbell (Middle East Institute):
He says the US is hoping that a mix of military strikes and new sanctions will force Iran to bend. Campbell notes that the White House has shifted to a “stasis” approach, maintaining the blockade and doing periodic raids that keep the global market stable but do little to win a negotiated settlement.
Dr Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi (Chatham House):
Tabrizi argues Iran is largely unshaken, preparing for a long‑term pressure campaign and refusing to give in. She believes Tehran is waiting for a US concession—perhaps a re‑start of the ceasefire deal—before they might back down.
Nicholas Hopton (Royal United Services Institute):
Hopton cautions that the US cannot win by more attacks; instead, he recommends returning to the June ceasefire, which could lift sanctions, weaken the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and lead to a new, more open Iranian regime over time.
All three experts agree that the current strategy risks dragging the conflict into an endless spiral. The next strategic move—whether more pressure or a fresh diplomatic pact—will determine if the war can finally be brought to a close.
