In brief
Vietnam's Prime Minister suggests a charming approach, but experts warn his golf diplomacy may not save the nation from new tariffs as the economy braces for impact.
Vietnam is gearing up as the US gears up to enforce new tariffs dubbed "Liberation Day in America!!!", leaving countries in suspense. As President Trump prepares to impose tariffs on foreign carmakers, Vietnam finds itself more vulnerable due to its large trade deficit with the US, especially as businesses have shifted from China to this Southeast Asian nation. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh humorously proposed that he would "golf all day long" with Trump to find common ground, hinting at a diplomatic twist to trading tensions. However, experts suggest that while Vietnam is keen to strengthen relations, Trump's historical tough stance on tariffs may overshadow personal diplomacy.Previous claims by Trump suggest he view Vietnam unfavorably, labeling it "worse than China" due to its growing trade deficit with the US. While Vietnam is not currently on the tariff hit list, analysts are cautious, with Stephen Olson warning, “Personal relationships matter but Trump is likely to push for tough trade policies.”Additionally, Vietnam aims to avoid trade restrictions, with recent moves including allowing SpaceX's Starlink service to operate in the country and lowering tariffs on US imports, a strategic maneuver termed "bamboo diplomacy." This approach aims to remain flexible amid changing global dynamics.Nevertheless, China's significant economic influence looms over Vietnam's prospects. The influx of Chinese investments and exports often raises red flags for the US. Former trade negotiator Wendy Cutler emphasizes Vietnam's delicate balance between benefiting from US-China tensions without becoming too reliant on China, which constitutes over a third of its imports.In light of these challenges, it's uncertain whether Vietnam's chances of steering clear of new tariffs hinge on golf outings or cautious economic strategies. With the looming March deadline for Trump's tariffs, Vietnam awaits the economic forecast that could shake up their market and manufacturing sector. As the countdown begins, the spotlight is on whether Vietnam can swing its relationship with the US in its favor.
